The results of the 2023 Elyria Mayoral Election Poll are in. There were 264 participants. This is the 3rd poll I’ve run this election cycle and the first that focused only on the mayoral election.

This is not a scientific poll. It is an internet poll. It is meant to stir discussion and, for political nerds like myself, to have some fun. While “online life” is reflective of “real life” these are not predictive results. The numbers below only illustrate a sample of Elyrians who are following this election cycle, are active in local Facebook groups, and chose to participate in this poll. Still, there is much we can gleen from the results.

Before we get to the numbers, here’s a quick look at the vote count from Elyria’s 2019 mayoral election:

Now, let’s take a look at the results from today’s poll. 260 participants responded to the question, Who did you vote for in the 2019 mayoral election?

These results are somewhat in line with 2019 turnout, though less Brinda supporters took part in this poll. Surprisingly, the 16% who reported not voting in 2019 is roughly in line with predictions of how many more voters will cast their ballot in this election than the 2019 general.

Next, let’s look at how participants in this poll identify politically. 258 participants responded to this question. The number of those identifying as “Democratic Party” is somewhat lower than Elyria’s actual electorate, while those identifying as Independent or not-otherwise affiliated are somewhat higher. Those identifying as “Republican Party” are fairly reflective of Elyria’s electorate.

Finally, let’s look at the participants’ choice for mayor. 261 participants responded to this question. I’ll leave my thoughts on the results below.

Remember to consider what the results above tell us, and what they don’t.

Again, this is an internet poll, and online life is only reflective of offline life. While this poll could suggest the order in which the candidates perform, it’s unlikely these numbers will perfectly match the actual election outcome for several reasons.

First, a 67% showing for Brubaker will be difficult to achieve given this is a four-way race. The last time a Democratic candidate for Elyria’s mayor garnered this amount of votes was 2011. In that race, Holly Brinda won with 69% of the vote in a two-way race.

Second, 1.1% for Grace seems low. I would expect Grace’s numbers to more closely match his 11% showing from 2019, perhaps in the 7-10% range this time around.

I also would expect Gobielle to do better on election day than the 3% here. Anecdotally, some Republicans are stating on social media that they will be voting for Brubaker this election. Still, Elyrians turned out for Honey Howard for Law Director in 2019 with 25% of the vote (Amanda Deery won that election with the other 75%). Howard is running again this year, now as a Republican, and has the full support of Lorain County’s Republican Party. If Howard is able to match her 2019 performance I would expect Gobielle to possibly garner 15-20% of the vote this election.

Finally, the Whitfield numbers. He won in 2019 with 47% of the vote. At the time there was discontent within the Democratic Party, some of whom voted for Whitfield as a way to vote against Brinda. Whitfield, an Independent, also picked up a significant number of GOP votes given no Republican ran in 2019.

Whitfield will likely need to retain a significant portion of the “anti-Brinda” vote he picked up in 2019 as well as the GOP vote. He will also need to outperform his 2019 results by either picking up a majority of votes from those who didn’t vote in 2019, or by expanding his base, or both. This poll suggests he has more work to do to get there.

That said, Whitfield’s result from this poll seems excessively low. A 20-point drop from his 2019 performance would be a shock. The overall result between the 1st and 2nd place candidates will likely be much, much closer than this poll suggests.

Thanks for participating. Whoever you’re voting for, please vote.

Be sure to share your thoughts in the comments under the social media post that brought you here, and I’ll be sure to reply.

Cheers